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WTNT35 KNHC 061146
TCPAT5
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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FLÌýÌýÌýÌýÌýÌý AL052021
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021
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...ELSA JUST WEST OF KEY WEST...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
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SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...24.5N 82.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
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WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
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None.
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SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
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A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla
River, including Tampa Bay
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A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River
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A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida
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A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida
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A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida
* Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina
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A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.Ìý This is a life-threatening situation.Ìý Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
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A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.Ìý A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
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A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
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A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
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A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.
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Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast should monitor the progress of Elsa.
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For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
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ÌýDISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 82.6 West. Elsa is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north by tonight.Ìý A north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday.Ìý On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to pass near the Florida Keys this morning, and move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later today through tonight. On Wednesday morning, Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast through tonight, and Elsa could be near hurricane strength before it makes landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after Elsa moves inland.
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Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.Ìý A C-MAN station at Sand Key, Florida, recently measured a wind gust of 52 mph (83 km/h). The Key West International Airport also recently measured a wind gust of 48 mph (77 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
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HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web atÌý.
Ìý
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of central and western Cuba during the next several hours.Ìý Tropical storm conditions are beginning in the warning area in the Florida Keys and are expected along the Florida west coast later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the Florida Big Bend region tonight and early Wednesday, where hurricane conditions are possible. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning late tonight and in Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday night and early Thursday.
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STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore winds within the Tropical Storm Warning areas...
Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft
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The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.Ìý The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
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Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to 4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
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Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.Ìý For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
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RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected.
This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.
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Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts this week:
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Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.
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Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.
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Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding.
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Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.
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TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight across the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.
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SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.
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NEXT ADVISORY
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Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
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544
WTNT35 KNHC 020849
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021
...ELSA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AND IS VERY NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THERE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...12.7N 58.6W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the entire coast of Haiti, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southern portion of the country from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* ÐÓ°ÉÐÔ°É * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * The southern coast of Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti * Entire coast of Haiti
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Jamaica
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 58.6 West. Elsa is moving quickly toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands this morning, move across the eastern Caribbean Sea late today and tonight, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast over the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by little change in strength.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web atÌý.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas and possible in the watch areas later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Saturday, with hurricane conditions possible in southern Haiti. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica Saturday night or early Sunday.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola.
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches today across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including ÐÓ°ÉÐÔ°É. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.
Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides.
Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides.
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg
"Managing Disasters with Preparedness"
The motto of the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency encapsulates the nature and work of this disaster management organisation which serves the Caribbean Community (CARICOM).
This regional inter-governmental agency established in September 1991 by an Agreement of the Conference of Heads of Government of CARICOM to be responsible for disaster management. There are presently sixteen Participating States? within CDERA’s membership.
Functions
CDERA's main function is to make an immediate and coordinated response to any disastrous event affecting any Participating State, once the state requests such assistance. CDERA has since transformed to CDEMA
Other functions include:
* Securing, collating and channeling to interested governmental and non-governmental organizations, comprehensive and reliable information on disasters? affecting the region;
* Mitigating or eliminating as far as possible, the consequences of disasters affecting Participating States.
* Establishing and maintaining on a sustainable basis, adequate disaster response capabilities among Participating States; and,
* Mobilizing and coordinating disaster relief from governmental and non-governmental organizations for affected Participating States.